Steiner: Hamilton's 2026 title chance is 'small' — Ferrari must pick a No.1 now

When Guenther Steiner spoke on The Red Flags Podcast midway through the 2026 season, he didn't talk about speed or aerodynamics. He talked about a number: 59. That's the points gap between Kimi Antonelli and George Russell within the same Mercedes team — and also the realistic gap Lewis Hamilton must close if he wants to touch an eighth title. Steiner, who once ran Haas on instinct and bluntness, delivered a cold diagnosis: Ferrari cannot win by treating both drivers equally. They must put all resources behind Hamilton, accept a clear No.1 – No.2 structure, and hope Antonelli — a rookie — will make mistakes himself. The context of this assessment lies in the new 2026 regulation cycle, where the 50/50 power split and active aerodynamics have reshaped the hierarchy. Red Bull no longer dominates like the ground-effect era. McLaren, though still formidable with their 'papaya rules' policy of letting both drivers race freely, is clearly not the leading team. The title fight is a direct duel between Ferrari and Mercedes — two teams with comparable weapons, but one has experience, the other has youth and a car that is faster on certain circuits. The crux of Steiner's analysis lies in the contrast between the two driver pairings. At Ferrari, Hamilton has 'largely held the upper hand' over Charles Leclerc for most of the season — a strong signal confirming his decision to join the Italian team was correct. At Mercedes, Antonelli leads Russell by 59 points, a massive intra-team gap suggesting either the car suits the young Italian's style, or Russell is suffering from the mechanical issues Steiner alludes to. Interestingly, Hamilton and Russell are level on points — a rare cross-comparison showing these two cars are nearly equivalent, making the title fight essentially a battle of team management and consistency. Steiner argues that Vasseur 'will' implement team orders, not because he has inside information, but because of the mathematical logic of a championship. In a two-horse race, splitting points between two drivers is a luxury no chasing team can afford. McLaren's 'papaya rules' is a philosophical choice, but it doesn't win championships when your opponent has a clear lead driver. Ferrari needs a single spearhead, and Hamilton — who is ahead of Leclerc — is the obvious choice. However, the contrarian angle here is: team orders could be a double-edged sword. If Ferrari formalizes the No.2 role for Leclerc, the risk of the Monegasque losing motivation is real. F1 history is full of examples of 'demoted' drivers underperforming, reducing the team's total points — the opposite of the original goal. Moreover, relying on Antonelli's mistakes is a fragile strategy. A rookie leading the championship by 59 points over his teammate is not the kind of driver who collapses easily. He has a high ceiling, and if Mercedes manages the psychological pressure well, Hamilton's 'window of opportunity' could close faster than Steiner thinks. The real question is not whether Hamilton deserves priority — the answer is yes. The question is whether Ferrari has the courage to accept the internal political risk, and whether Mercedes will show enough cracks in the second half of the season. Steiner is right: the chance is small. But in a season where new regulations have erased all old hierarchies, 'small' is still a chance worth betting on. And for a driver carrying the ambition of an eighth title, that's all he needs.